Predictions: KSU at Sam Houston + CUSA Power Poll

KSU Owls Sports predictions and CUSA power poll graphic for Kennesaw State at Sam Houston, Saturday Nov. 14, 2 p.m. ET on ESPN+

Two weeks ago, Kennesaw State was 1-6. Now the Owls have back-to-back wins, 86 points in those two games and a shot at something they've never done: beat Sam Houston. Kennesaw State (3-6, 2-3 Conference USA) visits Sam Houston (1-8, 0-5 CUSA) today, Saturday, Nov. 14, at 2 p.m. ET at Elliott T. Bowers Stadium in Huntsville, Texas. Here's our score pick, how you voted on X, the TV and radio card and our CUSA power poll.

How to watch and listen

  • Kickoff: Saturday, Nov. 14, 2 p.m. ET (1 p.m. CT)
  • Where: Elliott T. Bowers Stadium, Huntsville, Texas
  • TV / stream: ESPN+ (Jason Metko and Jorge Vargas on the call)
  • Radio: KSU Owl Network, the KSU Owls app and TuneIn
  • Series: Sam Houston leads 3-0, and all three games were decided by seven points or fewer

Our score pick

Kennesaw State 30, Sam Houston 17.

We're sticking with Tuesday's pick from our fan's guide, and the betting market has moved our way: the Owls are about a touchdown favorite this week.

The reason is simple. Sam Houston can't run the ball, and it can't stop the run. The Bearkats average 74.7 rushing yards a game at 2.7 yards a carry, and they give up 192.3 rushing yards a game at 5.0 a carry. That's a matchup made for Boogie Woods III, who has 448 rushing yards and eight touchdowns and has scored twice in back-to-back games.

The big unknown is under center. Rickie Collins, who leads CUSA in completion percentage (69.9 percent), left the Delaware game injured. KSU hasn't announced his status, and public injury trackers still list him as questionable. If Collins can't go, Landon Varnes has already shown he can win a shootout. He threw for 254 yards in relief against Delaware, including the 63-yard go-ahead touchdown to Reed Jesiolowski.

Don't sleep on the Bearkats, though. This is their first home game under co-interim head coaches Eric Raisbeck and Freddie Aughtry-Lindsay, and Sam Houston's own game notes point out that November has been its best regular-season month since moving to FBS in 2023 (7-5). Their pass defense is legit, too, allowing just 161.4 yards a game.

If KSU runs the ball, keeps the flags down (it was flagged 15 times against Delaware) and keeps scoring in the red zone, where it's 29-of-31 this season, the Owls leave Texas with their first win over Sam Houston and a three-game winning streak.

X poll results

On Monday we asked you to pick the Homecoming player of the game from the 42-40 win over Delaware.

Option Votes
Davis Bryson 0
Boogie Woods III 0
Landon Varnes 4
Daniel Kinney 0

It's a clean sweep. All four votes went to Landon Varnes, the backup quarterback who came off the bench and led the comeback. That's a tough beat for Davis Bryson, who had 232 all-purpose yards and a 99-yard kickoff return touchdown, and for Woods, who ran for two scores. But the Nest has spoken: when the QB comes in cold and wins a game with eight lead changes, he gets the votes. The field was small, so let's get more of you voting next time.

CUSA power poll (our view)

1. Liberty (8-1, 5-0) — Eight straight wins after a 30-14 win at New Mexico State. The Flames scored the last 14 points to pull away. They host MTSU Saturday.

2. Jax State (7-2, 5-0) — Rolled Sam Houston 47-14. The Gamecocks have run for a touchdown in 67 straight games, the longest active streak in FBS or FCS. They visit WKU on Saturday.

3. Middle Tennessee (5-4, 3-2) — Beat WKU 51-42 on a 48-yard field goal with one second left, then scored on WKU's lateral attempt. That snapped a seven-game skid in the rivalry. Next up is the toughest trip in the league, at Liberty.

4. Kennesaw State (3-6, 2-3) — Up four spots. Two straight wins, including the 44-28 win at MTSU and the 42-40 Homecoming thriller over Delaware. Yes, we're homers, but nobody in the 2-3 pack is hotter.

5. FIU (4-5, 2-3) — Beat Missouri State 23-20 on a field goal as time expired after JJ Kohl led a late 64-yard drive. The Panthers visit Delaware Saturday.

6. Delaware (4-5, 2-3) — Still the most dangerous passing team in the league. Nick Minicucci has back-to-back 400-yard passing games, but the Blue Hens' two-game win streak ended in Kennesaw.

7. Missouri State (3-6, 2-3) — Lost on the final play at FIU. The Bears still own a win over KSU, and they host New Mexico State Saturday.

8. WKU (3-6, 2-3) — Tied MTSU with 31 seconds left and still lost by nine. That has to sting. Jax State comes to Bowling Green Saturday.

9. New Mexico State (3-6, 2-3) — Hung with Liberty for three quarters before the Flames pulled away. The Aggies have lost two straight.

10. Sam Houston (1-8, 0-5) — Six straight losses and a coaching change. The Bearkats are hoping a home crowd changes things against the Owls.

The bottom line

Our poll is crowning backup quarterbacks, the power poll has the Owls in the top half and the betting market finally agrees with us. Lean on Woods, protect the ball, and make it three in a row.

Final: Kennesaw State 30, Sam Houston 17. OwlUp!

Catch last night's preview and what to know, dig into the Rickie Collins stat deep dive, check the full 2026 Kennesaw State schedule, and grab some black-and-gold gear before kickoff.

KSU Owls Sports is an independent fan site and is not affiliated with Kennesaw State University.

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